If my journalistic senses are correct we will soon see the first batch of speculative stories about the composition of the next Wallabies team.
Six weeks into Super 14 we've already seen a couple of local derbies but they shouldn't be considered as national selection trials ahead of contests such as last night's between the Waratahs and Crusaders.
The prospects of Phil Waugh versus George Smith make for a good yarn but is it really the best selection trial for who should be the Wallabies openside flanker?
We often get embroiled in the head-to-head contests around our Super rugby games as good indicators of who should perform well against our Test match opponents.
The emotion of a local derby often gets sidetracked around bragging rights and in some cases diverting media pressure. Teams have survived on the back of local derby success but cannot win against other opponents.
So different can a local derby be that the game style and attitudinal approach is often skewed.
Teams play above themselves and individuals play with abnormal arousal levels that cannot, or are not, replicated on a week-to-week basis. This is difficult to coach around as minimum performance standards are expected and if the variation is dramatic it creates false expectation and hope.
Watch any local derby in the Super 14 and you see things that are different. The other week in our match against the Brumbies saw a slew of blood bins, yellow cards and brutal clashes.
Is this the best way to pick our Wallabies?
When the second XV trains against the first XV these are often sessions harder than the game. In France this is ritually done mid week, every week.
Despite the physical effort involved they don't make good selection opportunities because they are abnormal. Even mate versus mate is abnormal as some players play harder and some play softer.
Contests without emotional relationships are the genuine selection tests.
In the dark ages the annual home-and-away series between Queensland and New South Wales produced heaps of fire and brimstone. The "Battle of Ballymore" posters probably best portrayed the mood around these fixtures and their importance. A rugby ball with an army helmet was a very poignant reminder of what was considered important.
Wallaby selection always ended up a mixture of the two teams and mate versus mate quickly turned into a harmonious Wallaby team a week or two later.
Looking back there was little other way of doing it. These days with four Super 14 teams it would seem that a more considered approach might be the focus.
It is a reasonable proposition to think that Phil Waugh v Richie McCaw, Daniel Vickerman v Ali Williams, or Matt Giteau v Daniel Carter would be far better indicators of Wallaby selection.
These contests are in fact going on week in and week out and the summary tells us who is a consistent performer against good opposition. But Wallaby selection needs to be more than isolated performances against well known opponents.
One of the real tests of a footballer's ability is playing against the unknown. Playing against mates you've competed against every year since school does not have the cutting edge that an uncaring and unfamiliar opponent offers.
The big games are coming up and last night was one of them for us. It will be interesting to see how the Herald's team of the week on average matches up with the official squad when it's revealed after the Super 14 final.
Consistency in the toughest provincial competition in the world produces mini Tri Nations matches each week so it makes sense for selectors to pay greater attention to the games that pit the Australian sides against the Kiwis and South Africans.


