New Zealand v England, AMI Stadium, Christchurch, Saturday 21, 7.35pm local time.
England caretaker coach Rob Andrew has hit the panic button after last week's 37-20 defeat, coming across in interviews as a Clive Woodward/Eddie Jones love child going through his moody adolescent period.
First he accused All Blacks captain Richie McCaw of cheating, which should ensure a nice welcome in Christchurch. Second, he implied that Welsh referee Nigel Owens let him get away with it because Owens stayed at the same hotel as the All Blacks before last week's game in Auckland. And third, he dumped all but two of his back line from the first Test.
All of this before the news that Auckland police were investigating an alleged incident at the team hotel following a night on the tiles by England players. The postmortem with Martin Johnson when England return to face their new head coach would make good viewing.
But is not all doom and gloom. England have an admirable leader on the field in Steve Borthwick, whose nuisance value to the All Blacks' lineout, in tandem with Tom Palmer, was immense at Eden Park. The England pack was competitive all night, and handed out a lesson in the first 20 minutes courtesy of their superb body positions and brutal commitment to the breakdown. They are without loose-head Andrew Sheridan (eye) this week, who is replaced by Tim Payne, but the significance of that loss is tempered by Sheridan's ineffective performance against Greg Somerville.
The England back row of Luke Narraway, James Haskell and Tom Rees excelled last week. There were echoes of the Lawrence Dallaglio, Richard Hill and Neil Back unit in their play, a combination of aggression and athleticism. Regardless of the result in Christchurch, they will return north with bright futures.
The back-line changes are a combination of pragmatism and desperation. Jamie Noon's stout defensive qualities are introduced at No.12 to combat Ma'a Nonu, No.10 Charlie Hodgson is punted to make way for the rangy Toby Flood, who is normally a No.12, elusive midfield Mathew Tait is pushed back to fullback, Danny Care comes in at halfback and Tom Varndell is introduced on the left wing to mirror Topy Ojo's extreme pace on the right flank.
Noon's promotion and the exclusion of Hodgson and Olly Barkley shore up the defence but limit the attacking options in the inside backs, so Ojo will be dining on scraps again.
The All Blacks have made four changes and will be wary of taking one step back after two steps forward with their wins against Ireland and England.
Richard Kahui gets his debut at No.13, having been on the selectors' radar for a number of years. His performance for the Chiefs in round two of the Super 14 was a microcosm of the 22-year-old's career to date. He showed great defensive line speed to put a solid hit on Waratahs wingers Lote Tuqiri, bumped off the same man to go over for a try - and then injured himself in the process. Doubts about durability will be put to the test by chunky opposite Mike Tindall.
Feelgood story Rudi Wulf, who has fought back from a broken neck, also gets his first All Blacks jersey in a like-for-like switch with Anthony Tuitavake, while Leon MacDonald is handed the No.15 on his home ground. But most interest will centre on Adam Thomson at No.6, a virtual unknown at the start of the Super 14.
The tight five backs up from last week, but world-class loose-head Tony Woodcock returns to bench and is sure to ask some more questions of the England scrum when he comes on. But Ali Williams and Brad Thorn will be fuming about the lineout mess last week and get the chance to right the wrong in the area that must be causing the coaching panel the most angst. Thorn is a menacing presence in the loose and a powerhouse in the scrum, but England capitalised on his relative lack of height last week.
But it's in the backs where the All Blacks have the edge. Andy Ellis and Dan Carter will be relishing the chance to further develop their combination on very familiar territory at AMI Stadium, although Ellis needs to do more to suggest that he is not just keeping the No.9 jersey warm for the injured Brendon Leonard. Carter is in wonderful touch, keeping the defence guessing with his pace of the mark, astute kicking and slick distribution. Keeping him quiet for 80 minutes is a huge task, and he only needs 80 seconds to cause the damage.
The key match-up: Blindside breakaway - Adam Thomson v James Haskell. The All Blacks have altered their back-row model this year - Jerry Collins is going overseas to terrorise French men - with the No.6 and No.7 being asked to share the breakdown duties. It's similar to the way the Springboks play and Thomson, at 196cm but with the pace of a midfield back, ticks a lot of boxes for the role. The Otago man also has the happy knack of being where the ball is, especially when it's close to the try line. Haskell is cut from the same cloth, and showed an appealing refusal to be intimidated last week. The Wasps youngster has been learning his trade in England beside Lawrence Dallaglio, who knows a thing or two about back-row play - and also beating the All Blacks in New Zealand. This won't be the last time these two collide.
The stat: Ma'a Nonu made his debut for the All Blacks in the 13-15 loss to England in 2003. There are seven New Zealand survivors from their 22 on that night, and four from the English side.
Prediction: All Blacks by 15.
TV: Fox Sports 3, 5.30pm, Sydney time.
New Zealand: Leon MacDonald (Canterbury), Sitiveni Sivivatu (Waikato), Richard Kahui (Waikato), Ma'a Nonu (Wellington), Rudi Wulf (North Harbour), Daniel Carter (Canterbury), Andy Ellis (Canterbury), Rodney So'oialo (Wellington), Richie McCaw (capt) (Canterbury), Adam Thomson (Otago), Ali Williams (Tasman), Brad Thorn (Tasman), Greg Somerville (Canterbury), Andrew Hore (Wellington), Neemia Tialata (Wellington). Reserves: Keven Mealamu (Auckland), Tony Woodcock (North Harbour), Anthony Boric (North Harbour), Sione Lauaki (Waikato) Jimmy Cowan (Southland), Stephen Donald (Waikato), Mils Muliaina (Waikato).
England: Mathew Tait (Newcastle), Topsy Ojo (London Irish), Mike Tindall (Gloucester), Jamie Noon (Newcastle), Tom Varndell (Leicester), Toby Flood (Leicester), Danny Care (Harlequins), James Haskell (Wasps), Tom Rees (Wasps), Luke Narraway (Gloucester), Tom Palmer (Wasps), Steve Borthwick (Bath, captain), Tim Payne (Wasps), Lee Mears (Bath), Matt Stevens (Bath). Replacements: Jason Hobson (Bristol), David Paice (London Irish), Ben Kay (Leicester), Joe Worsley (Wasps), Peter Richards (London Irish), Olly Barkley (Bath), David Strettle (Harlequins).
Ref: Johnathan Kaplan (South Africa)
