In Super 14 tipping competitions, the rule generally is to take the home side to win. But there are teams that defy this rule. These teams play to the formula of Dare To Win Away, rather than the generally losing formula of Try Not To Lose Away.
The tippers who played it safe took a hammering over the weekend when three memorable away victories were recorded by DTWA teams, with the Crusaders crushing the Bulls, the Western Force getting up on the bell to defeat the Cheetahs, and the Blues hammering the toothless Lions.
The Western Force have lost only one match in three seasons of playing in South Africa, and that was last week. Against the Cheetahs, they were a DTWA team, playing with an attitude based on the notion that they had to keep the ball in hand and run hard and cleverly at their opponents to get a win.
It is a credit to their coach, John Mitchell, that he has put in place systems and plays, most of them involving Matt Giteau, that kept the Cheetahs' well-organised defensive line in a perpetual state of concern. There were inside flicks and outside run-arounds (one of them leading to a magnificent solo try by Giteau), and plenty of tough metre-making bursts by big forwards such as the impressive Nathan Sharpe.
The Force nullified the often frenzied chants of "Cheetahs! Cheetahs!" with their flowing, effective, ball-in-hand play, and some rare luck for a team playing away. A critical penalty kicked for the Force by Giteau came when the Cheetahs ran on a substitute before clearing the player with officials. In decades of watching rugby, I've never seen a penalty awarded for this technical offence.
Then almost on time, the Cheetahs missed an easy penalty. Now came the moment of truth that tested the DTWA attitude of the Force. The ball was run back from the in-goal into the field of play. Then with a series of calm, thoughtful and robust plays the ball was moved phase after phase into the Cheetahs half. A penalty was forced and Giteau booted home the kick. What did the Waratahs do when they were faced with virtually the same situation at Hamilton against the Chiefs?
The Waratahs had forced their way back to 17-17 when Lote Tuqiri scored a try on a rare occasion when the ball was moved quickly from a tap penalty. There were three minutes of play left. The Chiefs kept the ball in hand and forced a penalty, which was converted. The Waratahs, unlike the Force, tried to kick their way into a strong field position. Virtually on time, Sam Harris kicked out on the full from outside the 22.
This insistence on playing a TNTLA game started at the beginning of the match when a 10 - 0 penalty count was levied against the Waratahs by the South African referee, Marius Jonker. Most of the penalties were for trying to slow down the ruck and maul, a ploy that had worked for the Waratahs at the SFS against the Hurricanes.
The Waratahs scrum, too, refused to pack properly on the Chiefs' feeds. If this is contested by the Waratahs' coaching staff, then they should answer this question - why is it that every match the Waratahs play involves endless re-setting of scrums on the opposition put-in?
Then there was the bizarre (to my mind, anyway) decision to replace Rocky Elsom with the smaller Beau Robinson. Elsom looked bewildered as he wandered reluctantly off the field. As well he might, for he is the best ball-runner in the pack. Having two small breakaways on the field was a concession, so it seemed to me that the coaching staff were more concerned about shutting down the Chiefs than the Waratahs scoring tries.
On Saturday the Waratahs play an inexperienced Highlanders side (oldest player 28) at Carisbrook, the House of Pain. This should be an easy victory for the Waratahs if they play to win. But if they play not to lose once again, then the tipsters would be smart to take the underdog home side to win.
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