THIS time last week, we were anticipating a Springboks victory in this year's Tri Nations tournament to go with their Rugby World Cup triumph last year. Back home in the security of their laager it was expected the Springboks would win their last three Tests, against the All Blacks at Cape Town and the Wallabies at Durban and Johannesburg.
The defeat of the Springboks at Cape Town by a gutsy All Blacks side has changed this equation. The All Blacks can win the tournament, depending on bonus points, with a victory in Brisbane on September 13. The Wallabies, too, with two wins out of three Tests, already can win the tournament by winning at least two of their remaining three Tests.
First, though, some history that puts the All Blacks' win into a contemporary perspective. In 1928, the Springboks destroyed the All Blacks 17-0 in the first Test between the two teams in South Africa. Newspapers reported that the flag at the Wellington Town Hall was at half mast on the Sunday morning and that people reading about the match on a bulletin board outside the post office refused to believe the news. In the last Test of the 1928 tour, however, the All Blacks defeated the Springboks 13-5 to square the series.
The point about all this is that South Africa's crushing victory was at Kingsmead, Durban, where the Wallabies are playing this weekend. NZ's series-squaring win in 1928 was at Newlands, Cape Town. The All Blacks, in fact, have won four out of eight Tests at Newlands. And on Saturday they kept the Springboks pointless for the first time in their Tests in South Africa.
Part of the reason for the NZ success at Cape Town is the support they get from the Cape Coloured population there. There is an element of a home-away-home atmosphere when the All Blacks play at Cape Town. There is no such atmosphere when any team plays the Springboks at Durban. So the Wallabies can expect Kingsmead to be an intimidating cauldron. Robbie Deans has anticipated this by foreshadowing his most combative second row, of James Horwill and Daniel Vickerman, will play. Nathan Sharpe, whose combativeness is more verbal than physical, has been left at home.
It's obvious from the Springboks' performances in their past two Tri Nations losses that coach Peter de Villiers hasn't grasped the aerobic imperatives imposed on players by the experimental law variations. Last season, the Springboks got great success from their heavyweight pack and back row because the ball was in play, on average, for only about 25 minutes. There was plenty of time off for the big players to get their breath back. But in Tests this year under the ELVs the ball has been in play for about 40 minutes. One phase of play on Saturday went on for three minutes, with two quick lineouts taken and the ball moving up and down the field several times.
Only aerobically superior sides can survive under the ELVs. The big Springboks flankers are aerobically inferior. They were outpaced around the field and outplayed at the ruck and maul by the much quicker, dynamic Richie McCaw, the best player in rugby right now. The All Blacks won 12 turnovers. The hulking Schalk Burger, so damaging last year, was pulled off the field with 20 minutes to go. The pace had made him a virtual passenger.
George Smith can have a field day in the loose if the Springboks continue to play without a "fetcher". And if they continue to play the ball on the ground they should be penalised (as they were by referee Matt Goddard), allowing Matt Giteau, hopefully, to kick the goals that Daniel Carter could not convert. It seemed to me that fatigue on the part of the bulky Boks pack (the aerobic factor again) was behind the wilful ploy of playing the ball on the ground.
The last Wallabies win in South Africa was at Durban in 2000 when Stirling Mortlock kicked a conversion on time to seal a 19-18 victory. Can the Kingsmead cauldron become the Wallabies home-away-from-home ground, as Newlands is for the All Blacks?
