ANALYSIS
A COMMENTATOR in New Zealand revealed the interesting statistic that the 2008 Super 14 tournament, up to the 13th round, had produced 100 fewer penalties and 50 more tries than last year's tournament.
One of the points his column has made about the ELVs (the experimental law variations) is they allow more expansive play and also (and this is important) the traditional boot-fest game as well. Earl Rose, playing for the Lions against the Chiefs at the weekend, booted four penalties and three conversions to kick his team home. Even Jonny Wilkinson would have been happy with that kicking tally of 18 points. In round 13 there were 38 tries scored in seven matches, many of them played in driving rain. The handling for the most part was extraordinarily safe. The slippery ball was moved up and down the field skilfully and effectively by hand, even though the hard-shouldered tackling hits could be heard across the oceans.
The play in the Super 14 is derided by some northern hemisphere commentators as being "too frothy". In reality, the intensity and quality of the rugby being played in this year's tournament - and especially last weekend as the finals race intensified - is way ahead of what was played last year, even though it was a World Cup year. A fearless prediction: if the SANZAR national teams play with anything like the passion, speed and skills of their Super 14 sides, the northern hemisphere invaders in the coming Test series, even a strong team such as Wales, are going to be blasted off the paddock.
Value is affected by supply and demand. There are fewer penalties kicked under the ELVs. But, in my opinion, this makes it all the more important that sides carry very good kickers to convert the fewer penalty shots and the increased number of conversions. As many conversions are difficult shots from the sidelines, teams need dead-eyed goalkickers to add value to the tries they score.
The Queensland-Crusaders match was about as exciting a game that has been played at any time in the history of Super rugby. Greg Martin, understandably, at one stage started yelling out from the commentary box about "the biggest upset in Super rugby history" being on the cards. The Crusaders finally got in front when Dan Carter booted over a conversion from near the sideline to give his side a crucial one-point lead.
In the entire round, there were 22 penalties kicked and 27 conversions. All three Reds tries were converted, for instance. The Crusaders missed two conversions but kicked a penalty goal. There was not one successful penalty goal in the Sharks' 33-14 win over the Cheetahs, with its crucial implications for the Durban-based side's finals hopes. There were six successful conversions, however. The Waratahs negated their two-tries-to-one deficit against the Stormers by Kurtley Beale kicking a conversion and two penalties to the Stormers' one penalty.
This brings us to the final round. The Crusaders (52 points) have gained home-ground advantage for the finals. The Hurricanes (40) and the Waratahs (39) need a win against the Blues and the Reds respectively to guarantee them a place in the finals. Both, however, are playing away from home. On paper, at least, the Waratahs have the easier assignment, as the Reds, unlike the Blues, do not have a mathematical chance of making the finals.
The Reds supporters, though, will point to the Waratahs' poor record this season away from the fortress of the SFS, with victories in only two out of six away matches. There is also the problem of NSW beating the Reds at Brisbane, something achieved by only one Waratahs side in Super rugby. As well, the Waratahs have to get over the effects of travelling back from South Africa.
Two teams with finals possibilities, the Sharks (37) and the Chiefs (34), play the last match of the regular season. Will this be the match that decides who contests the finals?
