IN THE Z household on Saturday night, Big Love, an intriguing drama about polygamy in Utah, trumped Rugby Love and the absorbing drama of six contending teams trying to make the final four of the Super 14.
So I watched the Reds go down in a dour struggle to the finals-bound Waratahs at a Bondi Junction hotel. There were two screens on the back wall. The room was crowded, with the best view going to a baby in a pram (they breed NSW supporters young). You got a heady sense of the ebb and flow of the match through the muffled commentary with the cries of excitement when the Waratahs attacked ("Go Lote, go!") and the groans ("Oh Nooo!") when Kurtley Beale missed another shot at goal.
After the match, a couple of good old boys came up to me and asked, somewhat delicately, why I hadn't watched the match from the comfort of my home. "Madame Z is a fan of Big Love, I told them.
"My wife's the same," came the reply. The conversation turned towards the Waratahs' chances in the finals. I suggested that since Luke Burgess was introduced into the starting side, the Waratahs had added some spark to their grinding game. They could go all the way, I suggested, based on their form recently.
One of the good old boys made the motion of writing something down on a notebook. "You heard it here first," he said.
"You heard it here first, and in Tuesday's SMH," I confirmed.
What led me to make this slightly fearful (rather than fearless) prediction is the lesson we learnt from the 2007 World Cup. The teams with the expansive games in the group stage (notably Australia and New Zealand) were booted out in the quarter-finals by teams that defended grimly, with the support of referees who operated like parking ticket officials.
The Waratahs have the second-best defensive record this season, having conceded 186 points. The first-placed Crusaders conceded 176, the fourth-placed Hurricanes 204 and the third-placed Sharks 209. The top four teams were the best four teams when it came to not conceding points.
But the Tahs scored just 255 points over the season. Only one team scored fewer - the bottom placed Lions, with 206. The Cheetahs, the second-last placed side, also scored 255. By way of comparison, the Crusaders chalked up 369 points, the highest in the league. The Hurricanes scored 310 and the Sharks, despite their 47 points against the Chiefs on Sunday, just 271. The best statistic for the Waratahs in all of this, however, is that in matches that really counted, they scored well, defeating the Hurricanes 20-3, the Blues 37-16 and the Sharks 25-10.
The key for the Waratahs is to hope the Hurricanes beat the Crusaders in Christchurch then defeat the Sharks at the SFS on Saturday night. If these results come to pass, the Waratahs get a home final, to be played, unfortunately, at ANZ Stadium, which diminishes slightly the home-ground advantage they have capitalised on this season.
It will be a big effort for the Hurricanes to get up because the Crusaders are even stronger at home than the Waratahs. The Hurricanes have played the Crusaders in three Super finals matches, all of them at Christchurch, and they've been beaten each time. In fact, the Hurricanes have had only one Super rugby victory against the Crusaders playing at home, in 2001. There is the possibility, though, of the Crusaders losing momentum going into the finals, as they did last year. This could help the Hurricanes and, ultimately, the Waratahs. The Crusaders were abysmal against the Highlanders at the weekend.
They were so rattled they looked like the Waratahs of old, when they used to disintegrate late in the season. So we have the irony this season that the Wara-wobbles could come from the Crusaders.
