AN IRON law of Super 14 rugby is that coaches lose their jobs, new players burst on to the scene and the competition goes on.
A subsidiary law, unfortunately, is that the Waratahs don't win the Super 14 tournament. At half-time at the SFS, with the Waratahs holding an unexpected 18-8 lead over the rattled Auckland Blues, someone said to me: "What do you think now of sacking a coach halfway through the scene?"
"It's seems to work," I said. "Remember David Nucifora with the ACT Brumbies? He was sacked halfway through the season and they won the tournament."
Then down at Clovelly Beach on Sunday one of the good old boys yelled out to me: "What're you going to write about now on Tuesday?" This was a reference, of course, to the talk in the press about the NSWRU's decision to drop NSW coach, Ewen McKenzie.
"Bring back McKenzie," I shouted back. But this was just joking. The axing of McKenzie was brutal. But sooner or later this season the axe was going to fall because the Waratahs are losing their core support with their dull, defence-obsessed, no-mistakes-and-no-flair approach.
They have been playing, until Saturday night, like one of those robotic South African sides of a couple of years ago rather than in the grand NSW tradition of slick, dynamic, fast and open rugby. The hunt is on for McKenzie's successor. In the past the board of the NSWRU, and especially a handful of powerbrokers, most of whom know nothing about rugby, have interfered in the process of selecting a coach. A panel of rugby experts should do this job.
I remember being phoned up by a powerbroker some years ago, for instance, and being asked who would make the better choice for the Waratahs as coach, Laurie Mains or Bob Dwyer. My advice was that very good coaches come from all different backgrounds. They have different philosophies and methods. But they always have one thing in common - they've been winners at all the levels they have coached at.
The usual suspects have been named to take over from McKenzie. Laurie Fisher of the Brumbies. Surely not. David Nucifora. Surely not, again. Todd Louden, the Waratahs' attack coach (up to Saturday night, what attack?), has had success with the Bulls as an assistant coach and has taken Randwick to a grand final victory. Perhaps. Michael Cheika has had some success with Leinster. A lesser perhaps.
But the coach who really should be the favourite for the job is Chris Hickey, the Eastwood coach. John Connolly called him "the jewel in the crown" of potential coaches, and pointed out that the past 17 teams he has coached have made a grand final, including the Australian under-21s in their recent World Cup tournament.
How do we explain the Waratahs' victory over the Blues? The Blues played poorly, were poorly selected and had no plan to counter the flat defence of the Waratahs. The Waratahs won the lineouts and the penalties. But more importantly the team, finally, had some fizz, energy and pace at halfback with Luke Burgess playing like a latter-day Ken Catchpole of blessed memory. For some years Burgess (like Hickey) has been a folk hero of the Sydney club rugby scene. "There's this halfback playing for Easts who could be anything," journalists would tell you in admiration.
The Waratahs are sixth on the table with 22 points. Two of the five leading teams (the Western Force and the Chiefs) are on 23 points, and one (the Blues) is on 24 points, but all these sides have played one more game than NSW. In theory, at least, the Waratahs can go third if they can win their next game.
And what a game it is. The Waratahs play the Force at Perth, with the winner becoming Australia's great hope for a finals spot.
